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1996-07-08
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From the Radio Free Michigan archives
ftp://141.209.3.26/pub/patriot
If you have any other files you'd like to contribute, e-mail them to
bj496@Cleveland.Freenet.Edu.
------------------------------------------------
INTELLIGENCE DIGEST - 17 February 1995
by Joseph de Courcy
RUSSIA ON THE ROAD TO RUIN
==========================
Last week we highlighted the political problems Russia
faces, both internally and externally, as a result of
the move to crush Chechnya's independence. These problems
are compounded by an escalating economic crisis.
Since the beginning of the Gorbachev reforms we have warned
subscribers that there was only the smallest possibility that
Russia would make a complete conversion from autocracy to
Western-style capitalist democracy. What little chance there
was has all but disappeared. Now the decision for Russia is
whether to continue its decline into oblivion or to re-establish
itself as an economically-backward autocracy. The option of
becoming a fully-fledged member of the Western family does
not exist.
The economic crisis in Russia is reflected in a monthly
inflation rate that has rocketed from around 5% last August
to 17.8% in January. That equates to an annual inflation rate
of over 700%.
All attempts to rein in inflation founder on popular demand
for more wages (the Federation Council has just passed a
law - which might be vetoed by President Yeltsin - that
will more than double the minimum wage) and on the inability
of the government to manage its own finances. Moscow is
negotiating a $6.2bn stand-by loan with the IMF. This will
be forthcoming only if Moscow can control the budget deficit,
but that is a virtual impossibility with tax receipts running
at under 40% of the budgeted figure.
The prospects for 1995 are further clouded by the racing
certainty of a major crisis in agriculture. Some 80% of all
farm machinery is in need of repairs which the farms cannot
carry out because of the delay in the payment of subsidies.
During January, meat and butter output was down by over 40%
on last year, and sources say that Russia's 1995 harvest could
also be 40% down on 1994. (Much is being made of this crisis
in agriculture by Agrarian Union. Starodubstev was one of the
group that tried to overthrow Mikhail Gorbachev in August 1991.)
To crown it all, life expectancy in Russia is now just 65
years (it might be as low as 64.1 years according to some
calculations), four years lower than it was at the beginning
of the decade.
All this is matched by a continuing decline in the morale
of the Russian military, particularly following the difficulties
in suppressing Chechen independence.
President Yeltsin's regime no longer has any sense of direction
beyond day-to-day survival; and although Yeltsin and his entourage
remain shrewd political infighters who were trained in the hard
school of Soviet Communist-Party politics, plots are being hatched.
YELTSIN OR RUSSIA
The choice, many influential power-brokers (and power-seekers)
now believe, is between Yeltsin and Russia. Most now believe
that what the West thinks is of little importance. Subscribers
should not be surprised to see decisive action taken in the
not-too-distant future.
However, if this assessment is wrong and Yeltsin's political
shrewdness (which should not be underestimated) sees him through
to the end of his term, Russia's economic and political decline
will only accelerate, further IMF loans notwithstanding.
Source: Joseph de Courcy
Intelligence Digest
17 February 1995
Intelligence Internationale Ltd.
The Stoneyhill Centre
Brimpsfield, Gloucester, GL4 8LF, UK
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:: ANNOUNCEMENT: The SAMSBEST archives are now available for ftp ::
:: at zilker.net cd /pub/jwr/samsbest. They may be read on the WWW ::
:: at gopher://oak.zilker.net/11/pub/jwr/samsbest. ::
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------------------------------------------------
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E-mail bj496@Cleveland.Freenet.Edu)